Thursday 17 October 2013

No School, Same Hard Knocks


We’re barely into the start of the new season and there's already questions on the fairness of the new qualifying method for the PGA Tour.  In this article on the Golf Channel website, Kevin Tway needed an invite for the opening tournament of the year, Frys.com, despite qualifying through the Web.com tour.  Tway qualified 9th in the regular season for the Web.com Tour, but dropped into 46th place after the new “Finals” series, meaning he'll struggle for starts because of his lower ranking in tournament fields.

For those who missed the "Web.com Tour Finals", the PGA Tour have come up with a new way of qualifying for PGA Tour cards.  Players who finished outside the Top 125 in the FedEx Cup go against the top Web.com Tour players.  Four tournaments then decide who gets the places which previously went to Q-Tournament qualifiers.  The Top 25 on the Web.com Tour are guaranteed their cards but are playing for their ranking, which can make a big difference in what tournaments they play in the 2013/14 season, which will now affect Kevin Tway.

The main motivation for the “Finals” was raising the profile of the Web.com Tour but it could be argued it’s a fairer way of giving out Tour cards.  Have a bad day at the Q-Tournament and that could be your chances gone for another year, whereas four tournaments give players more opportunities and mitigate the luck of  a one-off tournament.

It’ll take a few years to know what effect the “Finals” has and whether it’s a better alternative to the Q-School (like the FedEx Cup there will probably be minor changes).  One problem I can see is that very good players will find it difficult to get a card quickly, Rickie Fowler, Anthony Kim and Dustin Johnson being recent Q-Tournament graduates.  This will inevitably raise the importance of the Web.com Tour.  Forcing players to commit to the Web.com more than in the past, invitations and Major finishes will still be there to get a card (Spieth and Lynn being recent examples), but for the most part, the Web.com Tour will be the only way on the PGA Tour.


The European Tour is keeping the Q-School (played in November), so it’s interesting the see how the two methods – Q-School or Feeder tour qualification compare.  Fairness is one thing but which of the two produce the better tour players the following season?

European/PGA Tour Graduates ("Next Year" -no. of players retaining their cards | "Wins" - the total wins in the following season | "Best" - following season's best finishing qualifier)


Challenge Tour Qualifiers
Euro Q-School Qualifiers
Next Year
Wins
Best
Next Year
Wins
Best
2011
6/20
2
Quesne (63rd)
5/37
5
Grace (5th)
2010
8/20
1
Olesen (48th)
5/34
0
Coetzee (26th)
2009
9/20
5
E.Molinari (11th)
7/31
2
Anderson Hed (22nd)
2008
10/20
4
Cabrera-Bello (39th)
6/32
2
Chris Wood (44th)
2007
9/20
2
Aguilar (41st)
6/30
2
Larrazabal (18th)


Web.com/Nationwide Qualifiers
PGA Q-Tournament Qualifiers
Next Year
Wins
Best
Next Year
Wins
Best
2011
9/25
2
Blixt (35th)
14/29
2
John Huh (29th)
2010
9/25
5
Bradley (13th)
9/29
2
Woodland (17th)
2009
8/25
1
Sim (65th)
11/25
0
Fowler (22nd)
2008
10/25
0
Leishman (47th)
8/28
2
Yang (10th)
2007
5/25
2
N.Thompson (41st)
7/26
3
D.Johnson (42th)


Bradley qualified through the 2010 Nationwide


Over the five years, a Challenge Tour qualifier has a 42% chance of retaining their card but a Euro Q-School qualifier only an 18% chance.  It's a lot different on the PGA Tour, with 33% of Web.com qualifiers retaining their card compared with 36% of Q-Tournament Qualifiers. 

Oddly this would suggest that the European Tour need a change to the Qualifying criteria (although Q-School has arguably produced better players, Grace most recently).  On the PGA Tour, both qualifying criteria created a similar percentage of players who retain their card,  suggesting their equally fair or at least produce players of a similar standard.   This surprised me as I expected the Web.com Tour to produce better players, given it's season long and the Q-Tournament can be a lottery.

The disparity between the two tour schools also highlights the importance of rankings.  The PGA Tour give equal rankings for the two methods of qualification, whereas as the European Tour give the Challenge Tour some precedence over Q-School.  Meaning Q-School players get less opportunities to play and regain their card's on the European Tour.

This does remind you that it's one thing to get a Tour card, another where a player ranks.  To some extent this why you could argue Kevin Tway has been hard done by the "Finals".


Thursday 10 October 2013

Intro

First of all welcome to the blog!  Hopefully you'll find something interesting on the blog if you're interested in Golf, Betting or Form, especially a combination of them!

The blog is a bit of a companion to a website I've recently started, GolfBettingForm.com (surprisingly!).  The site's main feature are Form Guides for the week's Tournaments (PGA Tour & European Tour plus Web.com, Challenge, Champion & Asian Tours).  There's also Golf TV listings, Tour schedules, Free bet offers and Form for the 2014 Majors.


So a bit of background on me and what I'd like the blog to be about.

I've been a profitable gambler for the over ten years, Golf always being my main sport (mainly on Betting Exchanges).  But I should point out now that I don't mention profits as a way of selling tips but more as a way of putting some context to the blog.  My opinions on tipsters I'll probably mention in future posts (some good, some bad) but I've always been of the opinion that the fun of betting is backing your own opinion - (although winning is obviously important!!).  And that's part of the motivation behind the website, showing the tournament form in an easy-to-read way.  On the blog, hopefully I can give some useful insights.

I won't say much more on the content of this blog (mainly because I'm not sure myself!?) but I'll aim for a weekly Golf preview/review plus betting related articles, mainly from a statistical view.  Hopefully it will be worth a read!